Google Trend Data on SL--what we knew (again)

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 12:18 — RightAsRain Rimbaud

Google has a new feature on their web trends area that let's you see user trend on a specific site (only seems like larger sites atm). So of course we popped-in SL to see what that looks like. Was (sadly) of course what we expected to see--a steady decline.

Main issue is of course the dramatically lower rate of new registrations each month. During the same period we see from the LL data that inworld monthly hours are increasing during the same period. We can guess that this is due to the core of people spending more time inworld per month, but really that is only a small percentage of the hours increase. We still have the feeling (anedotal and without anything scientific) that most of the increase in hours is due to bots and campers.

When is LL going to try to turn this decline around? This is the hot question--LL is mute on it. LL has in the passed flipped this questions off by saying things like: there are gonna be a lotta hype cycles and declines in this new area. Yeah, but still what is LL gonna do? Maybe try some marketing? Try to work with residents somehow to promote the good parts of SL? Finally end this popular places mess that inspires bots and camping (but, er..then concurrency gonna crater?). Because--new tech is all about marketing until the real tech catches the hype!

Interesting to see that interest in "MMOs" in web search is increasing while interest in "Virtual Worlds" is pretty flat. At the same time the news coverage on the web is about the same--maybe virtual world even a little more interesting to put out on the web. So, we can feel somewhat encouraged that the macro picture for virtual worlds is not in the same hype cycle trough/backlash that SL is hiding itself in. (make note: marketing to MMO people that virtual world is also cool, unless you want racing or shooting).

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Comments

That "new feature" is almost

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 12:51 — Peter Stindberg

That "new feature" is almost 2 years old :-) I came to SL in fall 2006. That was the time when Anshe Chung was all over the web, and whent he gold-rush connotation was everywhere. Except for smut and porn SL has not made major news in a while. Also, those graphs just monitor the clickthroughs. Nowadays there are way more sites covering SL, so in percentage the SL website itself gets less clicks than 2 years ago. As nice as the "new" Google feature is - as with any statistics, it needs background knowledge and interpretation.

peter-the traffic SL loses to

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 17:07 — RightAsRain Rimbaud

peter-the traffic SL loses to bloggers is nothing compared to the lost traffic on reduced new accounts--which is like 5-6 page views per registration--so is like millions fewer pages July 08 vs July 07. You might also expect the SL news/bloggers to drive more traffic back to SL to offset the lost pages on SL.com. So actually, my guess is that the whole SL ecosystem is declining (our pages are up btw and so are our inworld avatar visits--but having a larger share of a shrinking pie is not to tasty).

Admittedly the SL bloggers

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 17:14 — Peter Stindberg

Admittedly the SL bloggers mostly deal with each other, and recruit new bloggers out of existing SL users. I also agree that Linden Lab can be dubbed "PR desaster". They lack a visible clear strategy, and this perceived inner confusion is displayed to the outside. They COULD make a difference, and bring a positive public perception across. Just as an example, in my country admitting to be in SL equals admitting to be a child molester... I am NOT convinced though that bringing shiploads of new users into SL will resolve all problems. Those new users also need something to do, and need a positive experience. The learning curve is very high though, and speed (or lack thereof), hardware requirements and overall stability will add greatly to frustration. My personal start into SL was rather smooth. But especially in the last quarter there were days where I would not have liked to be a new user...

I remember installing 18

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 17:25 — RightAsRain Rimbaud

I remember installing 18 floppy disks into the 386 pc for Office when windows first came out...nothing is worse, more difficult user experience! But, also it was a step down a road that has delivered and we all knew it would. So for me, issue is marketing and selling the future, people have a lot of patience when they understand where it is all going. In fact, SL's marketing job isn't so hard--it just needs to start and be funded.

/me smiles as he walks down

Mon, 07/07/2008 - 17:27 — Peter Stindberg

/me smiles as he walks down his own memory lane of IT technology... The early adopters are all in SL already, or leaving to OpenSim and other virtual worlds. We know have the early majority, which is much less indulgent when it comes to unreliablity.

@ Peter -- It is really

Wed, 07/09/2008 - 11:06 — Adaire DeCuir

@ Peter -- It is really unfortunate that being on SL = child molester. It is similar in my country as well, except being a chick, I'm labeled a cyber-er or just plain antisocial. That is a shame...I thought perhaps CSI and I Am Legend and the L Word might have helped SL look a little more mainstream and a little less child molester. I'm curious how many users were introduced to SL because of the media forms intersecting and what the results of those projects were. I do agree that the marketing is practically non-existent except from news programs talking about wackadoodles that are married to someone in RL and SL and stopped caring for his or her children. I was introduced to SL a year ago because of a friend and not anything I read. @RightAsRain - great article! Thanks for making it understandable to a not-so -technologically savvy gal. :)

Adaire: we hear from some

Wed, 07/09/2008 - 11:43 — RightAsRain Rimbaud

Adaire: we hear from some people that they "don't want a second life" but at the same time are interested in the virtual world. So it seems the more mainstream audience wants to have a more direct personal experience in the virtual world and not one shrouded in secrecy like you are hiding something. Is this really a big deal? Not for the early adopters or for the people experimenting with role play, but for mainstream people--who spill their rl guts on facebook etc--they want to incorporate a virtual world experience with their other online activities. So this is really a big marketing issue if SL wants to appeal to more users.